Roger S. Conrad

Fourth quarter is usually a good time to hold utility stocks. But it’s only rarely a good time to buy, as prices often reach yearly highs.

Capital spending plus regulatory support equals rising earnings, dividends and share prices: That’s the formula for superior total returns in utility stocks. And it’s what new Conservative Income Portfolio recommendation SCANA Corp (NYSE: SCG) is locked in to deliver at least to the end of the decade.

When AES Corp (NYSE: AES) started doing business in the 1990s, it had a simple philosophy: Scour the globe for growing electricity demand and execute projects to meet it.

PVR Partners (NYSE: PVR) earns an exit from my Endangered Dividends List this month. The catalyst was not third quarter earnings results, but the acquisition by Regency Energy Partners (NYSE: RGP) for 1.02 Regency units and a cash payment to be determined at close in first quarter 2014.

It’s been barely two weeks since Washington avoided the first federal government default, at least since the Articles of Confederation were in force. The autumn rally in stocks, however, actually began during the heat of the crisis.

The trigger was long overdue recognition the Federal Reserve isn’t going to abandon loose money until the economy is strong enough to handle it. All the “taper” talk that clogged the airwaves for months proved to be meaningless blather.

That’s hardly the first time conventional wisdom has proven disastrously wrong for the investors who bet on it.

The silver lining is resulting volatility was a solid opportunity to buy good stocks cheap. And thanks to that, we’ve already seen sizeable gains for the Conrad’s Utility Investor Model Portfolios, though they’ve only been around three months.

AT&T Inc (NYSE: T) was the only Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolio pick to report numbers last week. Takeaway one is quite positive: The results followed closely those of arch-rival and co-Big Two US communications company Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).

We’ve yet to see third quarter results for most of the US communications industry. But it’s not too soon to ask what happened to the assertion the Big Two US Telecoms — AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) — would be skewered by rivals’ cut rate pricing and a cheaper iPhone.

Earnings season is now underway for the Conrad’s Utility Investor portfolios, with Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) the first to report full numbers.

At its core, the stock market is about people. The numbers offer clues to the odds of company’s success. But as an analyst for nearly 30 years, I’ve found keeping tapped in to the market mood is no less essential.

Utilities and other providers of essential services are proven survivors of even the worst market debacles. As the 2008 market crash showed, the sector takes hits with the rest of the stock market.