US electric utilities have enthusiastically embraced renewable energy the past few years. That includes companies that have traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
By any measure, 2013 was a great year to own stocks. It was also an exceptionally bad time to bet against the United States of America. And that remains the case as we open the page on 2014.
Will Santa Claus visit utility stock investors this year? The sector was out of the gate quickly to start the fourth quarter of 2013. But concerns about the “tapering” off of Federal Reserve bond buying quickly slowed things down.
Will the Federal Reserve really “taper” off its easy money policy? The stock market has already reacted, with dividend-paying stocks leading the selling: The Dow Jones Utility Average is now flat for the fourth quarter, after being up better than 5 percent through mid-November.
Fear of rising interest rates again appears to be triggering selling of utility stocks. I’ve shown over and again that the sector’s so-called interest rate sensitivity is a false relationship over any recent period longer than a few weeks. Consequently, lower prices should be viewed as a buying opportunity for recommended stocks.
These utilities could be due for a dividend cut.
Part of me wants to say, “It’s about time.”
But Moody’s decision last month to put $400 billion-plus of sector debt on review for upgrade is unabashedly welcome news for utilities.
Healthy growing businesses produce rising dividends, which in turn push share prices higher: That’s the utility investor’s road to superior and safe long-term returns. And if operating results of our Portfolio companies are any indication, it’s still wide open.
Since World War II, no regulated utility has ever failed to make its bondholders whole from disaster. That gives utility bonds a level of safety no other sector can match, particularly after 11 years of systematically cutting debt and operating risk.
Utility bonds’ years of being under-rated may be coming to an end, now that Moody’s is considering a sector-wide upgrade. But for now, they’re under-priced and therefore yield more than debt of equivalent real risk.
Barring a real financial earthquake, this will be the ninth year of rising interest rates since 1992.
2013 will also be the eighth of those nine that utilities and other dividend paying stocks finished in the black. The only exception was 1994, when deregulation fears upended electricity and communications.
Utilities also rose eight years when rates fell. All their biggest declines, however, were during years of falling interest rates, particularly 2008.
Utility stock prices ultimately reflect the health of underlying companies. Stocks of financially healthy companies with growing dividends always move higher. But when an economic calamity brings interest rates lower quickly, they can drop in a hurry.
Roger's favorite utilities for investors seeking superior price appreciation by taking calculated risks.
Harness the tried and true wealth-building power of rising dividends.
Nothing compounds wealth like reinvesting a rising stream of dividends.
Warning: Falling Dividends.
Roger's current take and vital statistics on more than 200 essential-services stocks.