Issues

Jagged daily volatility has become the rule for stocks this spring, including dividend payers backed by the steadiest of businesses. That’s historically been a classic sign the market has entered a bearish phase.

But if you have the courage, energy and wisdom to pick your own stocks, it’s hardly a sign to head for the hills. In fact, opportunities abound for both buying low and selling high.

The S&P 500 is down more than -13 percent year-to-date, as inflation worries have begun to morph into recession fears. But despite jagged volatility, the Dow Jones Utility Average remains in the black for 2022. In fact, 18 CUI Portfolio stocks are still priced above maximum recommended entry points, with Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) in partial profit taking territory.

The Federal Reserve is getting serious about reining in inflation. And the kind of big money that never rests for long has apparently decided US utility stocks are an ideal haven.

The happy result: After lagging the past couple years, the Dow Jones Utility Average has pushed out to a 10 percent year-to-date return. That’s even as the S&P 500 has retreated -5.5 percent and the Nasdaq 100 is down -12 percent. 

After briefly rising over 1,000 for the first time, the Dow Jones Utility Average is in the black this year. That means essential service companies, including big communications stocks, are outperforming pretty much everything this side of oil and gas.

Electric, gas, energy infrastructure, water and communications service providers are the kind of substantial, reliable, dividend paying companies investors like to hold in turbulent times. And early 2022 certainly qualifies, with the highest inflation in 40-plus years, a diminished but lingering pandemic, continuing supply chain disruption and now a full-on war.

Stocks with sustainable 5 to 7 percent annual dividend growth: That’s how we’ll beat the current 40-year high in inflation, which pretty much caught the world’s central bankers napping.

The best place to hunt for companies to do that job is my Utility Report Card coverage universe—and particularly the stocks I recommend in the Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios.

Normally six months into a new quarter, the vast majority of companies I track would have released earnings and updated guidance. End-year filing requirements will extend the Q4 reporting period well into next month. But from what I’ve seen so far, the best in class are well on track to continue raising dividends faster than the current rate of inflation—and some much faster like Conservative Focus stock NextEra Energy Partners (NYSE: NEP) at 15 percent plus.

Through the first nine months of 2021, the Dow Jones Utility Average was up barely 1 percent. But after their fourth best Q4 since 1969, utilities’ 2021 return was actually 5 percentage points higher than the yearly average since 1993. It was also a good year for the three Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios. Top 10 DRIPs gained 19.5 percent on average, Aggressive Holdings 17.2 percent and Conservative Holdings 12.8 percent. Readers observing the discipline of recommended entry and partial profit taking points fared even better.

Welcome to the 101^st issue of Conrad’s Utility Investor. And here’s to the next 100 plus! With another coronavirus variant emerging and inflation the highest since 1982, it’s small wonder stocks are wobbling. But despite broad market uncertainty, the Dow Jones Utility Average is performing better than it has all year, up 8 percent since the end of September. Utilities are the rare sector where earnings and dividends have grown into bull market prices. That’s no guarantee they won’t sell off if the stock market heads down. But investors with a longer-term horizon can buy the best in class at prices ensuring 10 percent plus annual returns, provided companies stay strong on the inside.

Credit whatever you want for breaking the logjam in the US Congress. But starting next year, US electricity, natural gas, telecom and water utilities will enjoy unprecedented federal government largesse to support capital spending plans, courtesy of the $1.2 billion infrastructure law passed last week with bipartisan support. The August feature article archived on the CUI website highlights my list of winners from the coming spending boom. They include well-placed developers of renewable energy and hydrogen, broadband deployers and utility construction companies.

October is the month with the reputation for hosting epic market crashes. But September has historically been the worst for stock returns. And this year’s results matched the trend, as the S&P shed close to 5 percent and the Dow Jones Utility Average more than 6 percent of its value. The silver lining is the vast majority of our Portfolio stocks are once again trading at reasonable entry points for fresh money. And ironically, specific company developments last month were strongly positive. Front and center is Illinois’ new energy law and its potential to accelerate growth for Conservative Focus stock Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC) and deep value Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST).

From Winter Storm Uri to Hurricane Ida, extreme weather is the emerging big story for utilities in 2021, just as the pandemic was last year. And now as then, well-executed responses are absolutely essential.

New Orleans-based Entergy Corp (NYSE: ETR) arguably has the most on the line at this time. The Portfolio section discusses its prospects, as well as those of other storm-hit utilities.

My other big theme this month is income. Borrowing rates for Utility Report Card companies are still near multi-generation lows, which means slim pickings for fixed income. But the Feature article shows there are still big, safe yields in less obvious places.