Buy American, buy safety and buy yield: Those are three powerful upside drivers for utility stocks this spring, as major sector averages have made one new high after another.
Investors who choose to run with the bulls now, however, should have an extra ounce of caution. Not only are utility stock valuations at levels we haven’t seen since late 2000.
But as I point out in the Feature article, much of the buying power behind the rise doesn’t actually stem from decisions made by individual investors or even money managers. It’s the result of buy signals for algorithms that control vast and growing pools of “passively managed” money.
The fear the US/China trade deal might not get done is again roiling the global stock market. So far, however, selling hasn’t done enough to budge top quality utility stocks from their still historically high valuations.
High prices alone never kill bull markets. But it’s all too easy to disappoint the lofty investor expectations they represent. And risk is never higher than when companies are reporting quarterly earnings and issuing guidance.
This month’s Utility Report Card highlights my analysis of results for the roughly two-thirds of our coverage universe that’s responded to date. The really good news is that so far Portfolio recommendations are sticking to calendar year 2019 guidance, even in cases where weather and non-recurring events have depressed quarterly bottom lines.
2019 has started out with a bang for utilities and essential services stocks. The Dow Jones Utility Average’s 10.2 percent first quarter return was one of its best showings in history. And the 38 stocks in our Conservative Holdings, Aggressive Holdings and Top 10 DRIPS are higher by 15 percent.
This positive momentum is certainly a welcome change from lackluster 2018, and particularly the vicious fourth quarter selloff. But it also brings reasons for investors to be wary.
First, really big openings followed by fantastic finishes are extremely rare for utilities, the most recent being in 2000. Typically, stock prices level off in the following months. I’m encouraged that our Portfolio gains were more driven by positive business developments at individual holdings than the sector surge. But with the DJUA marking a new all-time high last month, utility valuations are back in the stratosphere.
From all indications, most Utility Report Card companies should report strong first quarter earnings and guidance updates in the coming weeks. But catalysts for further upside now face a high bar. It’s also noteworthy that more than a few best in class names lagged in the first quarter, despite very strong business performance.
As I pointed out in the March 21 Income Insights “The Fed Turns a Page,” the Federal Reserve’s decision to terminate its monetary tightening cycle carries a huge positive for capital intensive companies like utilities: A big drop in borrowing costs that’s provided a fresh opportunity to lock in cheap, long-term financing. This month’s Utility Report Card comments highlight this advantage, as well as analysis of other Quality Grade criteria.
There are only a few weeks left in first quarter 2019. And still a handful of Utility Report Card coverage universe companies haven’t reported calendar fourth quarter numbers and guidance.
Unfortunately, tardy filings are par for the course this time of year, when most companies make full-on annual reports rather than quarterly updates. But there’s already been plenty revealed that has critical implications for investors during the rest of 2019.
This month’s Report Card has the particulars for almost all of the companies that didn’t report in time for the February issue. Putting together everything we’ve learned so far, the most important takeaway is, to a company, our Portfolio recommendations didn’t disappoint.
In fact, Aggressive Holding Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (NYSE: HASI) justified our faith holding onto it over the past year by returning to dividend growth. That news pushed its shares to a new all-time high this month. And as the “Portfolio Holdings Trading Above Target” table in the Portfolio Article shows, it’s hardly alone in making a run.
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Roger's current take and vital statistics on more than 200 essential-services stocks.