On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 4.75 to 5 percent. The long awaited pivot from “higher for longer” interest rates ignited an investment media frenzy. But since then, the Dow Jones Utility Average is up less than 1.5 percent, barely matching the S&P 500.
That’s hardly surprising. From mid-April when rate cut talk started heating up until the Fed finally acted, the DJUA soared nearly 30 percent. So utility stocks were already pricing in the initial shift.
Not every big utility stock hit a 52-week high in the past month. But with the Dow Jones Utility Average up nearly 20 percent year to date, a baker’s dozen Portfolio stocks sell for more than their highest recommended entry points. That’s a massive turnaround from earlier this year. Consistent, strong earnings have been one factor: 26 Utility Report Card companies raised guidance after releasing Q2 results.
And only one of the 8 that cut was actually a regulated utility, weather-impacted gas distribution utility Spire Inc (NYSE: SR). The health and growth of underlying businesses always drives long-term investor returns. As the Portfolio discussion highlights, Conrad’s Utility Investor recommendations are on the right track.
The nascent trends I highlighted in the July 17 Alert “About that Volatility” have picked up steam since. That includes the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, as economic growth tapers and inflation moderates. Utilities and Big Tech stocks have noticeably traded places in the past month. The Dow Jones Utility Average is now ahead by 17.6 percent year-to-date, outpacing the suddenly weakening S&P 500 at 13 percent and the Nasdaq 100’s 10 percent. I’ve said for a while that interest rates were the key to utility stock prices short-term. And for at least the past few weeks, the trend has been our friend. But I see two key reasons to be cautious.
So far in 2024, the Dow Jones Utility Average lags the S&P 500 by nearly 10 percentage points. But over the past month, buying interest has picked up for at least a handful of CUI portfolio companies. Leading the way are nuclear powered Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) and Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST), with year-to-date gains of 46 and 57 percent respectively. But even underperforming Avangrid Inc (NYSE: AGR) now has a double-digit 2024 return, as parent Iberdrola SA (Spain: IBE, OTC: IBDRY) has made a non-binding all-cash takeover offer that’s likely to go higher. I continue to believe utilities as a sector won’t really capture upside momentum until there’s a genuine Federal Reserve pivot to lower interest rates. And with the central bank reactive as ever to the latest data point, investors have no choice but to be patient.
About a quarter of the 172 Utility Report Card members have reported calendar Q4 results and updated guidance. The top takeaway: There’s still absolutely no sign of the utility earnings Armageddon that’s now reflected in sector stocks’ bear market-like prices.
One reason for utility business strength is simply rising demand. Rapid adoption of artificial intelligence has massively and relatively suddenly begun ramping up electricity usage at data centers. And as my feature article highlights, utilities are increasing investment plans in response, which are the primary drivers of their long-term growth.
The Dow Jones Utility Average finished 2023 with a -5.2 percent loss including dividends. That’s the worst performance for utilities since 2008.
It’s a far cry from that year’s -27.8 percent pummeling. But the DJUA’s 31.3 percentage point underperformance of the S&P 500 is actually worse than 1999—when a similar combination of rising interest rates and soaring technology stocks soured many investors on dividends.
So in 2024, utility stocks have outperformed, as they have since early October. One big reason to expect more gains: A massive decline in companies’ borrowing costs that’s occurred well in advance of any Federal Reserve easing.
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