Issues

Through the first nine months of 2021, the Dow Jones Utility Average was up barely 1 percent. But after their fourth best Q4 since 1969, utilities’ 2021 return was actually 5 percentage points higher than the yearly average since 1993. It was also a good year for the three Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios. Top 10 DRIPs gained 19.5 percent on average, Aggressive Holdings 17.2 percent and Conservative Holdings 12.8 percent. Readers observing the discipline of recommended entry and partial profit taking points fared even better.

Welcome to the 101^st issue of Conrad’s Utility Investor. And here’s to the next 100 plus! With another coronavirus variant emerging and inflation the highest since 1982, it’s small wonder stocks are wobbling. But despite broad market uncertainty, the Dow Jones Utility Average is performing better than it has all year, up 8 percent since the end of September. Utilities are the rare sector where earnings and dividends have grown into bull market prices. That’s no guarantee they won’t sell off if the stock market heads down. But investors with a longer-term horizon can buy the best in class at prices ensuring 10 percent plus annual returns, provided companies stay strong on the inside.

Credit whatever you want for breaking the logjam in the US Congress. But starting next year, US electricity, natural gas, telecom and water utilities will enjoy unprecedented federal government largesse to support capital spending plans, courtesy of the $1.2 billion infrastructure law passed last week with bipartisan support. The August feature article archived on the CUI website highlights my list of winners from the coming spending boom. They include well-placed developers of renewable energy and hydrogen, broadband deployers and utility construction companies.

October is the month with the reputation for hosting epic market crashes. But September has historically been the worst for stock returns. And this year’s results matched the trend, as the S&P shed close to 5 percent and the Dow Jones Utility Average more than 6 percent of its value. The silver lining is the vast majority of our Portfolio stocks are once again trading at reasonable entry points for fresh money. And ironically, specific company developments last month were strongly positive. Front and center is Illinois’ new energy law and its potential to accelerate growth for Conservative Focus stock Exelon Corp (NYSE: EXC) and deep value Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST).

From Winter Storm Uri to Hurricane Ida, extreme weather is the emerging big story for utilities in 2021, just as the pandemic was last year. And now as then, well-executed responses are absolutely essential.

New Orleans-based Entergy Corp (NYSE: ETR) arguably has the most on the line at this time. The Portfolio section discusses its prospects, as well as those of other storm-hit utilities.

My other big theme this month is income. Borrowing rates for Utility Report Card companies are still near multi-generation lows, which means slim pickings for fixed income. But the Feature article shows there are still big, safe yields in less obvious places.

“Unpacking” earnings for key details became a popular catch phrase for analysts during Q2 reporting season. And that’s exactly what I do in this August issue of CUI: Utility Report Card highlights vital signs for the 90 percent or so of coverage universe companies that have turned in numbers and updated guidance, while the Portfolio section focuses on my top recommendations.

I dig deep into results to answer two critical questions. First, are companies still moving in the right direction with strategic plans and balance sheet health? And second, are business developments adequately reflected in share prices, meaning are there opportunities for upside or should we be moving on?

America’s electric utilities are on track for a 10^th consecutive year of record capital spending in 2021, according to numbers compiled by the Edison Electric Institute.

That’s closely followed by the $70 billion plus the country’s five largest communications companies plan to spend this year, rolling out 5G wireless and expanding fiber broadband connections. And while pipeline construction remains highly contentious in many places, spending on gas and water systems also remains at elevated levels.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports 5.8 gigawatts of operating US solar generation is now co-located with energy storage as of May 2021. And there’s another 28 GW combined with 39 GW hours of battery storage in some stage of permitting and securing financing for start up in the next couple years. Including storage capacity at facilities is the biggest step yet tackling what’s still solar energy’s biggest hurdle to growth, intermittency. And as battery technology develops, the industry will near its ultimate goal of making solar plus storage actually dispatchable to grid operators.

What a difference a few months makes in a momentum driven stock market! Earlier this year, it was our renewable energy stocks benefitting from frenzied buying of anything investors deemed to be “green,” with prices reaching generous profit-taking levels.

Now it’s our oil and gas pipeline stocks that investors can’t get enough of. And in contrast, Conservative Focus stock Brookfield Renewable Partners (NYSE: BEP) and Aggressive Focus stock Atlantica Yield (NSDQ: AY) are trading at positively attractive valuations. Even best in class wind and solar company NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) is in buying territory.

$274 billion: That’s the staggering sum President Biden’s infrastructure plan would allocate to US utilities, as investment in new transmission lines, renewable energy deployment and electrification of transportation. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that’s enough to add at least 2 percentage points to utility earnings growth rates. Getting that into rate base would require the assent of Congress as well as state regulators. But even $100 billion of fresh tax incentives and other subsidy would provide a huge lift for earnings and dividends, and ultimately share prices.