Endangered Dividends

Wireline communications company Lumen Technologies (NYSE: LUMN) eliminated its quarterly cash dividend this month. That brings total year-to-date cuts in the Utility Report Card coverage universe to nine.

This year is shaping up as a banner one for dividend increases in the Utility Report Card coverage universe. So far, 103 of the 179 companies tracked have raised their payouts at least once. And I count roughly three-dozen more that will almost certainly deliver a boost between now and December 31.

Since the start of 2022, the US Dollar Index is up about 15 percent to its highest level since 2001. That’s the result of determined inflation-fighting by the US Federal Reserve in the context of a still relatively strong US economy.

There are growing signs of a deeper recession ahead. And the US Federal Reserve is unrelenting pushing borrowing costs higher to bring down inflation to its long-term target of 2 percent.

Recession may not be inevitable for the US economy this year. But with the US Federal Reserve doing its best Paul Volcker impression, it’s well past time for investors to prepare against the worst.

Uncertainty is the order of the day for the economy and investment markets. But ironically, with Q1 results and guidance updates all in, 12 to 18 month dividend risk continues to drop for the essential services companies tracked in the Utility Report Card.

If all management teams live within their means, there would be no need for an Endangered Dividends List. But reality is businesses take risks in good times that come back to burn them in bad ones. And the five companies on the EDL reporting Q1 results so far still have some very real vulnerability.

Chinese power producer Huaneng Power International (HK: 902, NYSE: HNP) did not declare a dividend for fiscal year 2021. That means investors will likely have to wait until calendar 2023 for a cash payout.

Korea Electric Power (Korea: 015760, NYSE: KEP) still hasn’t declared an annual dividend for payment next month. But the company is effectively priced for a zero payout, after announcing a record operating loss for 2021 and guidance for an even larger one this year.