Endangered Dividends

Dominion Midstream has merged into its general partner Dominion Energy (NYSE: D). Unitholders by now should have received 0.2492 shares of D per DM unit. Factoring in Dominion Energy’s 10 percent dividend increase and a final partnership distribution of 36.9 cents per unit paid last month, Midstream unitholders will receive approximately -6.5 percent less in 2019 distributions than they did in 2018.

Last year, 20 Utility Report Card coverage universe members cut dividends at least one time. That’s a fraction of the 126 that raised payouts, including all the Conservative Holdings and Top 10 DRIPs. But it’s more than we’ve seen since the 2008-09 Bear Market. Now for some good news: Even if the global economy does slow this year, most essential services companies have adjusted enough to maintain their current payouts the next 12 months. That should even include most current members of the Endangered Dividends List, despite the weaknesses that landed them there. See this issue’s URC comments for complete analysis of how the coverage universe measures up on our five quality criteria: Payout sustainability, revenue reliability, regulator relations, refinancing risk and operating efficiency.

Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) reached a “definitive merger agreement” to buy out minority unitholders in its Dominion Midstream Partners (NYSE: DM) affiliate. The final terms reduce the effective distribution cut in the first year of the deal to a bit less than 15 percent. That includes the additional distribution payment of 36.9 cents and Dominion Energy’s expected 10 percent dividend increase in January.

Buckeye Partners (NYSE: BPL) has cut its distribution for the first time in its 30-year plus history: A -40.6 percent reduction spot on with our expectation. The move saves $300 million. That will fund modest capital spending without issuing new equity and make it easier to refinance the hefty $925 million in debt maturing through 2019.

Last month, Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) announced it’s buying the 39 percent of Dominion Midstream (NYSE: DM) it doesn’t already own. In the September 19 Alert, we noted the offer of 0.2468 D shares per partnership unit equates to a roughly 41 percent distribution cut. We also said Dominion will have to increase that closer to the initial public offering price of $21 per unit to succeed.

First the good news: Four companies earned an exit from the Endangered Dividends List this month without cutting payouts. CenturyLink (NYSE: CTL) is off after a stock and bond rally following turnaround second quarter results. That eases cost of capital pressures on the dividend and merits a boost in our buy target.

Enbridge Inc (TSX: ENB, NYSE: ENB) management isn’t budging from take under offers for its US MLP affiliates Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) and Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP). That boosts the odds the proposed stock-for-stock exchange ratio will hold, along with distribution cuts of 40 percent for Enbridge and 10 percent for Spectra.

SCANA Corp (NYSE: SCG) will cut its quarterly dividend to 12.37 cents a share starting with the July 18 payment. The -79.8 percent reduction is in response to the South Carolina state legislature, which last week passed a bill reducing the 18 percent rate hike to pay for the cancelled Summer nuclear plant to 3.2 percent.

Enbridge Inc (TSX: ENB, NYSE: ENB) is buying the remaining common units of the two US MLPs it controls: Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) and Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP). It’s a good deal for the acquirer, which is buying these assets for barely 7 times cash flow. Absorbing the regulated natural gas and oil pipelines should dodge a possible Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-mandated rate cut. And management has affirmed three-year earnings guidance while promising faster growth after 2020.

SCANA Corp (NYSE: SCG) won’t declare its June dividend until “closer to record date”. That’s the closest Conrad’s Utility Investor coverage universe companies have come to a payout cut this earnings season. But several are definitely on the edge.