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Executive Summary

Rotation in Progress but Quality Still King

By Roger S. Conrad on Aug. 5, 2024

The nascent trends I highlighted in the July 17 Alert “About that Volatility” have picked up steam since. That includes the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, as economic growth tapers and inflation moderates.

Utilities and Big Tech stocks have noticeably traded places in the past month. The Dow Jones Utility Average is now ahead by 17.6 percent year-to-date, outpacing the suddenly weakening S&P 500 at 13 percent and the Nasdaq 100’s 10 percent.

I’ve said for a while that interest rates were the key to utility stock prices short-term. And for at least the past few weeks, the trend has been our friend. But I see two key reasons to be cautious.

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