Investing Topics: Conservative Income

Thus far, my strategy has been to populate the three Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios as quickly as I can with high-quality fare, without paying too much.

Who says the bond market is washed out? Certainly not Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).

The company’s record $49 billion bond sale has not only locked in financing for its $130 billion buyout of Vodafone Plc’s (London: VOD, NYSE: VOD) minority stake in Verizon Wireless. But it was actually doubled, eliminating the need to raise funds in Europe.

Utility stocks have posted fourth-quarter gains 36 times since 1969. But last year the Dow Jones Utility Average dropped almost 4 percent, virtually all of it during the first two weeks of November.

As we enter the fourth quarter of 2013, a number of trends and developments have investors flashing back to the final three months of last year.

The government is again in budget disarray and the deadline for default is fast approaching. The US economy is still plodding, with second quarter GDP growth of 2.5 percent. The gap between rich and poor nations in the eurozone continues to grow. And softer Asian growth is still shaking up global natural-resource markets.

But there are differences from last year.

For one thing, the stocks are cheaper. Despite what’s shaping up as a solid year for business, conventional wisdom since late April has held that dividend-paying stocks are bond substitutes—and that a change in Federal Reserve policy to “tapering” is about to drive them off a cliff.

My feature article presents more evidence that the bearish thesis about utilities' sensitivity to interest rates is more sensationalism than sense. But the more important question is, what if great companies sold off enough to make them bargains again?

The weight of evidence in this month’s Utility Report Card indicates that real bargains have emerged, three of which I am adding to my Conservative Income Portfolio. 

Forget what you’ve read about iOS7, iPhone 5C, China sales and the rest of the various and sundry device hype. Put your money in AT&T (NYSE: T), not Apple (NSDQ: AAPL).

There was plenty to talk about this week from telecom to utilities to energy MLPs.

Dominion Resources (NYSE: D) shares hit an all-time high this week. The catalyst: A proposed spin off of the company’s natural gas assets into a master limited partnership (MLP), with an initial public offering in the second quarter of 2014.

Here’s the news from our Portfolio holdings over the past week. 

Utilities pay some of the safest and highest dividends on Wall Street. But they’re stocks, not substitute investments for bonds.

Those who’ve tried to treat them like bonds have consistently underestimated their returns in bull markets, as well as downside in bear markets. Similarly, those who’ve bought when interest rates were falling and sold when rates have risen have routinely paid too much and sold too cheaply. And occasionally as in 2008, they’ve had their heads handed to them.

August was a down month for utilities and other essential services companies—likewise the broad stock market. That continues a trend beginning in late April, when fears first stirred of an end to Federal Reserve easing.

Since then, the Fed has not changed policy. But the markets have acted as though much higher interest rates are a done deal. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield has nearly doubled. And expectations are we’ll see it at 4 to 5 percent, as the precursor to a dramatic, across the board rise in rates.

Big picture themes always grab investing headlines. Success, however, flows from knowing what’s up with individual companies.

Regulated water utilities, for example, are on their face the very simplest and uniform of businesses. Yet so far in 2013, returns from the 10 companies I track in the Utility Report Card have ranged from a 26 percent gain to barely breaking even.