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Feature Article

To Bet on 2024 Election Results, Focus on the Micro

By Roger S. Conrad on Nov. 11, 2024

Elections have consequences. In my view, last week’s outcome is much better explained by who didn’t vote than who did—as apparently almost one in seven 2020 Biden voters didn’t pull the lever for Harris in 2024 But whatever the reason, the results this time will likely have a profound impact on investors.

The trick following every election is deciding what consequences are worth betting on. Unfortunately, it’s a losers’ game for many investors.

Take energy, a campaign “issue” in 2016, 2020 and again this year. In each campaign, presidential candidates professed very different views on what American energy policy should be. Yet, their eventual actions didn’t affect investor returns in the slightest.

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