A couple months ago, the stock market appeared headed for a relapse of potentially epic proportions. Founded on the premise the Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation had been won, the early 2023 rally was fizzling, as it became clear the central bank wasn’t relenting. The banking system had revealed some fairly large cracks, with the demise of SVB seeming to spread to regional banks in general. And the federal government was lurching toward a first ever default. As it turned out, the debt compromise was doubly bearish for economic growth. Not only are there meaningful spending cuts that will hit some Americans particularly hard. But resolving the crisis has actually given Fed inflation hawks new impetus to push for higher interest rates, with more boosts likely this summer even if the central bank pauses this week.
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