• Twitter
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
  • Roger S. Conrad

Roger S. Conrad needs no introduction to individual and professional investors, many of whom have profited from his decades of experience uncovering the best dividend-paying stocks for accumulating sustainable wealth.

Roger built his reputation with Utility Forecaster, a publication he founded more than 20 years ago that The Hulbert Financial Digest routinely ranked as one of the best investment newsletters. He’s also a sought-after expert on master limited partnerships (MLP) and former Canadian royalty trusts.

In April 2013, Roger reunited with his long-time friend and colleague, Elliott Gue, becoming co-editor of Energy & Income Advisor, a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector.

Although the masthead may have changed, readers can count on Roger to deliver the same high-quality analysis and rational assessment of the best dividend-paying utilities, MLPs and dividend-paying Canadian energy names.

Articles

Eye on the Bottom Line: Our Companies Have Never Been Stronger

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024

So far in 2024, the Dow Jones Utility Average lags the S&P 500 by nearly 10 percentage points. But over the past month, buying interest has picked up for at least a handful of CUI portfolio companies. Leading the way are nuclear powered Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) and Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST), with year-to-date gains of 46 and 57 percent respectively. But even underperforming Avangrid Inc (NYSE: AGR) now has a double-digit 2024 return, as parent Iberdrola SA (Spain: IBE, OTC: IBDRY) has made a non-binding all-cash takeover offer that’s likely to go higher. I continue to believe utilities as a sector won’t really capture upside momentum until there’s a genuine Federal Reserve pivot to lower interest rates. And with the central bank reactive as ever to the latest data point, investors have no choice but to be patient.

Sempra Energy: Serving 2 Great States Plus LNG

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024
Conservative Holding Sempra Energy (NYSE: SRE) last month raised its five-year capital-spending plan by 20 percent to $48 billion. One big reason we can be confident management will turn that into robust earnings growth: 90 percent is targeted for already regulator-approved utility system investment in California and Texas. The rest will finance a portfolio of high return, pre-contracted LNG and renewable energy projects in the southwest US and Mexico. California’s drive to simultaneously electrify everything and stanch the danger of wildfires is spurring an earnings-lifting CAPEX bonanza for its utilities. That includes natural gas, as the realization energy transitions take time convinced regulators to authorize a 50 percent capacity boost at Sempra’s Aliso Canyon storage facility—which some wanted to close not long ago. And state law linking utility returns to interest rates has seen returns on equity surge to over 10 percent this year.

Algonquin: Gaining Strength as Big Moves Near

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024

It’s fair to say that Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX: AQN, NYSE: AQN) has been a problematic recommendation the past few years. Aggressive expansion boosted profits for years, then suddenly hit a brick wall of rising borrowing costs. And Kentucky regulators broke up the acquisition of American Electric Power’s (NYSE: AEP) operations in that state. But after boosting Q4 earnings and EBITDA by 14 and 13 percent, respectively, Algonquin’s core business is strengthening again. And the long awaited sale of non-utility assets may happen as soon as mid-year—lifting the long-lagging share price with massive debt reduction and stock buybacks. Operating profit at Algonquin’s regulated utilities in 2023 increased by 10.5 percent, thanks largely to rate increases paying for system investments. That will be the major driver of growth in 2024 and beyond, along with systematic cost management. During the earnings call, management highlighted $105.8 million pending rate increase requests to be decided this year.

Business Performance is Everything

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024

Last month, I highlighted three key takeaways, drawn from the Q4 results and guidance updates of Utility Report Card members I’d seen so far. They were: Number one, results and guidance demonstrated very healthy and growing business. Recommended companies met my chief criterion for continuing to own them, as well as add to current positions when appropriate. Second, every company affirmed its guidance for earnings growth as well as capital spending plans fueling it. And more than a few actually raised long-term investment targets.

Innergex Surprises: But Building a Financial Cushion Makes Sense

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024

Dominion Energy (NYSE: D) will drive down its payout ratio by holding dividends level the next few years. And other companies will do the same by sharply reducing the size of increases—and holding in more cash to self-fund growth. So far in 2024, however, just two companies have announced dividend cuts versus several dozen increases. The first was Orsted A/S (Denmark: ORSTED, OTC: DNNGY), a widely expected move brought on by vast cost overruns from building offshore wind projects. Since then, however, Orsted received a much needed shot in the arm, as its Sunrise Wind project won a new contract with New York state. The stock’s a buy up to 25 for patient, aggressive investors who don’t need the income.

Utilities and Wildfires: Danger But Also Opportunity

By Roger S. Conrad on Mar. 11, 2024

Last year, 56,580 wildfires burned roughly 2.7 million acres in the US, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That was actually the lowest total in the 24 years since the Center has been keeping track. It compares to a 2001-2020 average of nearly 7 million acres destroyed and nearly 10.3 million in 2020, the worst year on record. Nonetheless, wildfires in 2023 still caused billions of dollars and claimed lives. And numerous studies indicate vast areas of North America have developed a deadly combination of increasingly arid conditions and extended human settlement, putting them at elevated risk to extended and intense blazes. Few if any industries are as potentially exposed as electric utilities. Not only are wildfires capable of doing enormous damage to systems, interrupting sales and requiring massive repairs and remediation. But when damaged, live high and low voltage power wires become ready sources of ignition themselves, worsening ongoing blazes and in some cases starting them.

Dominion Makes a Deal

By Roger S. Conrad on Feb. 23, 2024
Since the February issue of CUI posted, 15 more Portfolio recommendations have released calendar Q4 earnings and updated guidance. And none so far have been as potentially consequential as Dominion Energy’s (NYSE: D).

Utility Business is Booming, Stocks Will Take Longer

By Roger S. Conrad on Feb. 12, 2024

About a quarter of the 172 Utility Report Card members have reported calendar Q4 results and updated guidance. The top takeaway: There’s still absolutely no sign of the utility earnings Armageddon that’s now reflected in sector stocks’ bear market-like prices.

One reason for utility business strength is simply rising demand. Rapid adoption of artificial intelligence has massively and relatively suddenly begun ramping up electricity usage at data centers. And as my feature article highlights, utilities are increasing investment plans in response, which are the primary drivers of their long-term growth.

MODEL PORTFOLIOS & RATINGS

ABOUT ROGER CONRAD

Roger S. Conrad needs no introduction to individual and professional investors, many of whom have profited from his decades of experience uncovering the best dividend-paying stocks for accumulating sustainable wealth. Roger b