Aggressive Income Feature

Fool me once shame on you, but fool me twice shame on me: That seems to be what many think of AES Corp (NYSE: AES), selling for 8.2 times expected next 12 months earnings and yielding north of 4 percent. In contrast, Wall Street is positive, with 10 research houses tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence rating buy versus 3 holds and no sells. And management raised 2024 earnings and EBITDA guidance in early August, reaffirming expected annual growth of 7 to 9 percent for earnings and 5 to 7 percent for EBITDA through 2027.

From April 2016 through January 2021, we earned roughly 300 percent on Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (NYSE: HASI). We took that profit. But when the stock dropped by more than half during a successful business year, I couldn’t resist re-entry. And despite growing revenue 78 percent, net income 50 percent and dividends by18.5 percent, the company has been the portfolio’s worst performer since.

Italy closed the last of its operating nuclear reactors in 1990, following a 1987 post-Chernobyl referendum. But earlier this year, Enel SpA (Italy: ENEL, OTC: ENLAY) and Ansaldo Nucleare forged an agreement to develop new nuclear reactors, with support of the country’s Ministry of Environment and Energy Security. Enel’s Endesa unit operates several reactors in Spain, which at this point has a plan to phase out nuclear energy by 2035. But like Italy, the country is now reconsidering its options. And as the largest power producer in both countries, the company is poised to capture what business emerges.

Last year, Aggressive Holding MDU Resources (NYSE: MDU) spun off its construction materials unit as Knife River (NYSE: KNF). Since then, the shares of KNF that MDU investors received per a 1-for-4 ratio have appreciated by roughly 75 percent. Now MDU is spinning out its larger construction services business as Everus, in a deal expected “in late 2024.” The unit reported all-time record order backlog in Q1. And with growth opportunities including data center development and industrial reshoring, its launch promises to attract even more interest.

When a stock sells for just 7.7 times expected next 12 months earnings, it’s clearly unloved by investors. And that’s clearly the case for America’s number 3 telecom AT&T Inc (NYSE: T), after returning less than 3 percent a year over the past decade. There are numerous reasons for AT&T’s underperformance. But the biggest was US government rejection of its proposed merger with T-Mobile US (NSDQ: TMUS), which led to a disastrous, debt-expanding foray into the entertainment business. And the company has dealt with the fallout ever since, including a first-ever -46.6 percent dividend cut as part of the Warner Brothers (NSDQ: WBD) spinoff in April 2022.

Earlier this year, what promised to be an Atlantic Coast offshore wind boom seemed to go bust. Lead developer Orsted A/S (Denmark: ORSTED, OTC: DNNGY) ousted upper management and wrote off $6 billion in shelved US projects, citing development cost spikes and uneconomic contracts. And its 50 percent partner EverSource Energy’s (NYSE: ES) felt its pain, taking a $5.58 per share impairment charge against Q4 earnings. EverSource’s plan all along has been to sell its ownership of the offshore projects to focus on linking transmission infrastructure. The writedown reflected the diminished value of those assets. But it now appears the demise of US offshore wind was indeed greatly exaggerated.

It’s fair to say that Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX: AQN, NYSE: AQN) has been a problematic recommendation the past few years. Aggressive expansion boosted profits for years, then suddenly hit a brick wall of rising borrowing costs. And Kentucky regulators broke up the acquisition of American Electric Power’s (NYSE: AEP) operations in that state. But after boosting Q4 earnings and EBITDA by 14 and 13 percent, respectively, Algonquin’s core business is strengthening again. And the long awaited sale of non-utility assets may happen as soon as mid-year—lifting the long-lagging share price with massive debt reduction and stock buybacks. Operating profit at Algonquin’s regulated utilities in 2023 increased by 10.5 percent, thanks largely to rate increases paying for system investments. That will be the major driver of growth in 2024 and beyond, along with systematic cost management. During the earnings call, management highlighted $105.8 million pending rate increase requests to be decided this year.

Aggressive Holding Avangrid Inc (NYSE: AGR) rang in the New Year with two major announcements: The company terminated a merger agreement with New Mexico utility PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM) that dated back to October 2020. And first electricity flowed to the New England power grid from 800-megawatt capacity Vineyard 1, the first commercial scale offshore wind facility in the US. Avangrid also affirmed its 2023 earnings per share guidance range of $2.20 to $2.35. But investor skepticism runs deep the combination utility/contract power producer will maintain long-term earnings growth guidance of 6 to 7 percent, demonstrated by the stock’s current price of just 10.9 times expected next 12 months earnings.

Last year’s big drop in shares of NextEra Energy Partners (NYSE: NEP) and parent NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) was sudden and staggering. Ironically, their recovery should be just as breathtaking. In the October 5 Income Insights “Regarding NextEra,” I stated the case for a comeback. And since then, the parent has returned nearly 30 percent, while Partners has gained almost 50 percent. Here’s why I think that’s just the beginning.

The first time I added shares of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (NYSE: HASI) to the Aggressive Holdings, we cashed out with a return of about 300 percent. My attempt at a reprise has so far been somewhat less successful. Hannon has met management’s guidance for 10-13 percent annual distributable earnings growth, as well as target yearly 5 to 8 percent dividend increases. The dividend itself is 13 percent higher than when we entered in early 2022, with another boost ahead for February.