Feature Article
Avista Corp: High Dividend, Declining Risk and an AI Play
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Dec. 9, 2024
A year ago, Avista Corp (NYSE: AVA) and other Pacific Northwest utilities were called out for future exposure to increasingly catastrophic wildfires. Some analysts forecast a permanent wildfire discount for their stocks.
Avista did experience severe conditions in late September, requiring a public safety power shutoff (PSPS) to 1,500 customers. But it also avoided meaningful liability, thanks in part to installing 9 artificial intelligence enabled fire detection cameras.
CLP Holdings: Your Least Risk Bet on Electricity in Asia
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Dec. 9, 2024
American electricity demand is growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s. But more than 90 percent of global power demand growth from 2016 through 2023 was in Asia.
According to the World Economic Forum, the continent will use half the world’s electricity next year. And China alone will use 33 percent, up from just 10 percent in 2000.
End Year 2024 Moves and Non-Moves
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Dec. 9, 2024
Other than it’s the pending close of the tax year, there’s nothing magical about the final weeks of the year for investors.
When Dividend Cut Risk is Overstated
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Dec. 9, 2024
Nothing alarms income investors more than fear of dividend cuts. So accusing a trusted company of nearing one is a time-tested way to get attention—whether you’re a Wall Street analyst or a Seeking Alpha blogger. BCE Inc (TSX: BCE, NYSE: BCE) and Eversource Energy (NYSE: ES) are recent targets of dividend cut speculation. But unlike the trio of companies currently on the Endangered Dividends List, actual risk is far less than it may first appear.
Utilities: Riding the AI Wave Safely
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Dec. 9, 2024
Electricity demand will grow six times faster over the next 20 years than it has over the previous 20. U.S. data center use alone will require 460 terawatt hours of new power by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 22 percent. Utility rates will have to rise at much as 70 percent by the end of the decade to pay for needed system investment. Big Tech companies are on the verge of financing a wave of new nuclear power construction.
Clearway Energy: Politics-Proof Renewable Energy Growth
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Nov. 11, 2024
Steadily growing cash flow and dividends by adding long-term contracted power generation:
That’s been Clearway Energy’s (NYSE: CWEN) successful strategy for the decade plus since former parent NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) launched it as NRG Yield. And the company continues to thrive under Clearway Group 54.91% of voting shares, 42.12% economic interest), which is owned by TotalEnergies (Paris: TTE, NYSE: TTE) and Blackrock/GIP.
Essential Utilities: Regulatory Certainty Brings a Return to Growth
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Nov. 11, 2024
For most of 2024, long-time water utility favorite Essential Utilities (NYSE: WTRG) was unable to affirm previous long-term earnings growth guidance of 5 to 7 percent. This month, it did so again, thanks to amicable natural gas and water rate decisions in Pennsylvania.
Home to its cornerstone water franchise and only gas utility—Peoples Natural Gas—the Keystone state is by far Essential’s most important regulatory jurisdiction. And in a 5-0 ruling the Public Utility Commission approved both a $93 million increase and a “weather normalization” mechanism for gas distribution, at a stroke limiting weather-related fluctuations in revenue.
Portfolio Strategy: Strong Earnings Will Grow Your Wealth
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Nov. 11, 2024
The Dow Jones Utility Average’s year to date return is now 20.5 percent. That’s a decline of around -1.4 percent since the Federal Reserve pivoted to lower interest rates on September 18.
The DJUA is once again lagging well behind the S&P 500, which as of Friday’s close was sitting on a 27 percent return. And it’s well behind the Nasdaq 100’s 26 percent plus return as well.
Two Dividend Cuts and a Likely Third
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Nov. 11, 2024
Just weeks after raising its final dividend for FY2024 (end June 30), Spark New Zealand Ltd (NZ: SPK, OTC: SPKKY) announced a -9.1 percent cut in its FY2025 dividend.
Last month, I noted management’s dour forecast for FY2025. And it’s now doubled down on that outlook, cutting EBITDA guidance to a range of NZD1.12 to NZD1.18 billion from the previous NZD1.17 to NZD1.22 billion. The telecom also cut its planned capital expenditures to NZD415 to NZD435 million, versus previous guidance for NZD460 to NZD480 million.
To Bet on 2024 Election Results, Focus on the Micro
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Nov. 11, 2024
Elections have consequences. In my view, last week’s outcome is much better explained by who didn’t vote than who did—as apparently almost one in seven 2020 Biden voters didn’t pull the lever for Harris in 2024 But whatever the reason, the results this time will likely have a profound impact on investors.
The trick following every election is deciding what consequences are worth betting on. Unfortunately, it’s a losers’ game for many investors.
MODEL PORTFOLIOS & RATINGS
Aggressive Income Portfolio
Roger's favorite utilities for investors seeking superior price appreciation by taking calculated risks.
Conservative Income Portfolio
Harness the tried and true wealth-building power of rising dividends.
Top 10 DRIPs
Nothing compounds wealth like reinvesting a rising stream of dividends.
Endangered Dividends List
Warning: Falling Dividends.
Utility Report Card
Roger's current take and vital statistics on more than 200 essential-services stocks.
Conrad's Utility Investor
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