Portfolio Article

The headline may sound counterintuitive. But paying attention on what you can control has consistently proven to be the best way for investors to stay whole in tough times, while positioning for the recovery that always follows. The best metaphor for the current stock market is a small group of generals leading an impressive-looking advance, but with a rapidly diminishing number of troops behind them. We know from history that these things have always ended badly. But while they last, it’s increasingly difficult for investors to resist their pull.

There’s no one right way to invest. The key is to seek an approach you’re comfortable with and stick to it, absorbing the best information you can find to make the best possible decisions. The approach that suits me is decidedly long-term. Mainly, I like to build positions in companies I believe will grow consistently, and when their stocks trade at what I believe to be discounted prices.

All in all, it was a pretty flat Q1. The Dow Jones Utility Average finished lower by about -2 percent, including dividends. And that was a mark all three of our model portfolios were able to top: On average, Aggressive Holdings were up 3.06 percent, Conservative Holdings slipped -0.79 percent and Top 10 DRIPs retreated -0.96 percent.

The stocks in each portfolio all have the fundamental objective to build wealth. But they’re set up to do it in different ways.

There’s nothing like a solid start to the year to get investors excited for what’s to come. Some use January’s results as a benchmark, others the first six weeks of the year. But whatever the gauge, at this point it looks like the S&P 500 is off to one of its better beginnings in 2023.

Exactly half of our portfolio stocks posted positive total returns in 2022 and half negative. That matches up pretty well with the mostly neutral returns posted by our Aggressive Holdings (up 3.5 percent), Conservative Holdings (up 1.3 percent) and Top 10 DRIPs (up 9.5 percent). It’s also right there with the Dow Jones Utility Average’s 2.08 percent total return for the year. But the overall numbers do mask some pretty massive divergence among individual holdings. The biggest is the 156.5 percentage point difference in performance between our best stock Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) and our worst Algonquin Power & Utilities (TSX: AQN, NYSE: AQN).

Even if the stock and bond markets manage a year-end rally of historic proportions, 2022 will go down as one of the more challenging for investors in memory. But with basically three weeks left in the year, the Dow Jones Utility Average is still very much in the black.

When the October issue of CUI posted, the Dow Jones Utility Average was underwater nearly -10 percent for the year. Now it’s close to even including dividends. That strong recovery also shows up in a brief scan of stock prices in this month’s Conservative Holdings, Aggressive Holdings and Top 10 DRIP tables. But it wasn’t exactly a buy everything moment either.

Utilities have been dropping for roughly a month. And despite the sector’s robust long-term outlook, it’s likely we’ll see lower prices still in the coming weeks.

The S&P 500 rose roughly 18 percent from a mid-June low to its summer high in mid-August. Since then, it’s given back about two-thirds of those gains—and is showing every sign of setting a new yearly low in the coming weeks.