Portfolio Article

Is this a bear market rally, or the start of another leg of the bull market that started in March 2009? How you answer that question will probably depend on what stocks you currently own.

Last month, I highlighted five key drivers of the Dow Jones Utility Average’s early 2022 rally past the long-elusive 1,000 mark. Unfortunately, over the past month of so two major negatives have put a lid on upside. One is inflation pressure that’s up-ended the broad stock market, while accelerating the bond market’s decline.

Utilities were the last major sector to make a post-pandemic high. But in late March, the Dow Jones Utility Average smashed through the once unassailable 1,000 level and hasn’t looked back yet.

First off, everything I said in last month’s Portfolio discussion about reliable dividend growth goes double now. Companies that have it will beat inflation and grow your wealth in coming years. Those that don’t won’t.

Inflation is back. How long it stays at the official January rate of 7.5 percent depends on myriad, shifting factors. But so long as it’s here, it’s imperative to seek some level of protection against the relentless, corrosive impact on wealth.

Real wealth is built over years, not months. And only by buying and patiently holding shares of financially healthy, growing companies can we realize the full benefit of a rising stream of dividends and the capital gains that flow with it.

Conrad’s Utility Investor has three model Portfolios. Our Conservative Holdings focus on best in class companies on target for consistent, reliable and robust earnings and dividend growth, with the idea that investors will harvest rather than reinvest dividends. Our Aggressive Holdings also generally assume a buy and hold approach, including harvesting dividends.

Worries about rising interest rates and inflation pressures have emerged as material headwinds for dividend paying stocks. As a result, the Dow Jones Utility Average has once again failed to break above long-standing upside resistance at its February 2020 all-time high. That makes it 19 months and counting since the DJUA has reached a new peak. And it’s a stark contrast to the S&P 500, which hit one just last month.

Last week, the Dow Jones Utility Average hit a new high for 2021. But unlike most market sectors, utilities as a group still can’t seem to get over the hump of making a new all-time high. And as this issue of CUI goes to post, the DJUA is still roughly 2 percent below where it crested in mid-February 2020.