Portfolio Article

Since the July issue went to post, the Dow Jones Utility Average has generally trended higher. The result is the half-year return of less than 3 percent has grown to over 9 percent. One key reason: Solid Q2 results and strong guidance updates issued by the average’s 15 members. That includes this month’s Aggressive Focus stock AES Corp (NYSE: AES).

The Aggressive Holdings returned an average of 7.95 percent in the first half of the 2021. Conservative Holdings came in at 5.28 percent, while Top 10 DRIPs did the best at 12.34 percent. The average return for all 41 stocks across the portfolios was 8.1 percent.

Sometimes the investing strategy that makes the most sense is just to sit with what you have. That’s pretty much where I see things now with calendar Q1 results all-in for CUI portfolio recommendations. Last issue, I highlighted three encouraging big picture takeaways from the numbers and guidance updates so far. They were the fact that almost all coverage universe companies met or beat previous management guidance, key utility growth themes continue to gain strength and conservative is still cool when shaping sector operating and financial strategies. Those three trends were equally strong in the results from companies reporting the past few weeks. Of the portfolio recommendations, Conservative Holding Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) increased Q1 earnings by 10.5 percent, affirmed its guidance mid-point of $5.15 per share for 2021 and repeated its target 5 to 7 percent annual growth rate.

Publicly traded companies today must constantly navigate their way through a thicket of financial reporting regulations and litigation risk. So it’s no wonder most take their time releasing fiscal year results, filings and guidance. In stark contrast are calendar Q1 results.

Perceived value always sets the price for stocks. And anyone who’s invested a while knows that can shift on a dime, as leaders and laggards trade places. Quality doesn’t change so quickly. That’s the health and growth of companies’ underlying businesses.

“Strong businesses are best but watch the price.’ That was the main theme of the February issue of CUI. And our advice to cash out of “the Teslas of the world” proved on the mark.

We start this month’s Portfolio strategy discussion with the three cornerstones of our investment strategy: 1) Sell stocks of companies that are weakening as businesses, 2) Build a pile of cash by unloading weakening companies and also taking partial profits on favorites that have run to unsustainable valuations, 3) Build a watch list of high quality companies to buy when they hit designated entry points.

Conservative Holdings up 2.6 percent, Aggressive Holdings ahead by 12.8 percent, Top 10 DRIPS a -12 percent loss. Those are the CUI Portfolio returns for 2020. By comparison, the Dow Jones Utility Average gained 1.5 percent, also including dividends paid. And the popular Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLU) was up 0.07 percent. 

We still have a few weeks left in 2020. But whatever happens, this will go down as one of the most eventful years in stock market history. There’s certainly plenty to recap already. The rapid swing from historic profit-taking opportunity in mid-February to equally compelling Dream Buy barely a month later is certainly without precedent in my career.

Economics not politics drive investment returns. Don’t get me wrong. Our Portfolio stocks came out very well in the recent election as businesses, future regulatory relations being the key concern.

The renewable energy focus of our electricity stocks is tailor-made for a new White House that will if anything try to speed up America’s ongoing energy transition. And the offshore wind stocks highlighted in the feature article are likely to be the next sector picks to pop, following example of contract generators like Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (TSX: BEP-U, NYSE: BEP).