Investing Topics: Investment Strategy

This week, the US Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate to a range of 1.5 to 1.75 percent. Does this mean it’s time for income investors to head for the hills? Hardly.

Whether you support or oppose President Trump’s economic policies, they’re undeniably bold. Already we’ve seen unprecedented fiscal stimulus for an economic expansion this long-lived, the rollback of years of business regulation and the biggest push for trade protections since Smoot-Hawley.

The Dow Jones Utility Average hasn’t revisited its Feb. 9 low thus far. But the index is still down almost 15 percent from the all-time high reached in mid-November. Weakness in income-oriented equity groups reflects the pullback in the overall market and fears of rising interest rates. However, at these levels, very few high-quality names in our Utility Report Card remain at unsustainably high valuations and only six of our Model Portfolio holdings trade above our value-based buy targets—a stark contract to only a few months ago. Fourth-quarter results and earnings guidance also underscore that tax reform will provide more of a longer-term tailwind for the utility sector than a near-term headwind. Developments on the regulatory front have also been positive, with Duke Energy Corp (NYSE: DUK) settling its rate amicably and the Texas Public Utility Commission finally approving Sempra Energy’s (NYSE: SRE) takeover of Oncor Electric Delivery. By and large, utilities and the other essential-service companies in our coverage universe reported solid earnings and issued encouraging guidance. Bottom Line: The stocks will only fall so far as weakness in the market and interest rate fears pull them. Although the recent pullback has weighed on our overall returns, investors who followed our lead and took partial profits over the summer should have plenty of dry powder at their disposal.

The pullback in utility stocks has weighed on our overall returns, but this retrenchment means that all but a small handful of our Portfolio holdings trade below our buy targets. Investors who followed our lead and took partial profits over the summer should have plenty of dry powder.

From peak to trough, the Dow Jones Utility Average has give up more than 16 percent of its value during the recent selloff. Many of our Portfolio holdings trade below our buy targets, but none of our picks have dipped below the dream prices highlighted in the February issue of Conrad’s Utility Investor.

Volatility creates opportunity. We review our three-part investment strategy for the current market.

The Conrad’s Utility Investor model portfolios turned in a strong performance last year. We review our strategy and how we plan to keep the streak going in 2018.

We review our top picks from last year and highlight our favorite stocks for 2018.

With 2017 winding down, investors’ focus naturally shifts to portfolio maintenance and positioning for the new year. We review our big winners for potential profit-taking and our few laggards for tax-loss selling.

Company-specific developments warrant higher buy targets for a trio of our Portfolio holdings.