Investing Topics: Investment Strategy

Does the Dow Jones Utility Average’s recent pullback mark the start of a reversion to the mean?

Despite lofty valuations in the utility sector, 16 of our Portfolio holdings still trade below our buy targets. We highlight some of our favorite opportunities for conservative and aggressive investors.

Utility stocks offer exposure to strong underlying fundamentals, but historically elevated valuations mean that investors must stay disciplined.

With first-quarter earnings season around the corner, we explain how investors can tune out the noise and focus on what really matters.

Shares of utilities and other essential-service companies have slipped from the highs hit earlier this month, reducing the number of Portfolio holdings that trade above our value-based buy targets to 14. Whether this wavering marks the start of another leg down for the Dow Jones Utility Average remains to be seen. However, the recent rally creates a high bar of expectations and increases the risk that investors will view any hiccup as an excuse to take profits. This month’s feature article highlights some of the macro catalysts that could send utility stocks lower. The current environment favors stock-picking over broad-based exposure, a point underscored by the widening discrepancy between the top and bottom performers in the utility sector. Although the Dow Jones Utility Average posted a total return of 18.2 percent last year, the index’s top performer beat the worst by 39 percentage points. This performance gap stands at 20 percentage points this year, despite the Dow Jones Utility Average gaining 5.4 percent. A retrenchment to normal valuations would widen this range. At this point, only 37 stocks tracked in our 205-company Utility Report Card trade below our buy targets. In fact, several dozen best-in-class names that earn A or B Quality Grades in our proprietary system trade at levels where investors should consider taking a partial profit off the table.  

Fewer than one in five stocks in our Utility Report Card trades below our value-based buy targets. Investors should stay disciplined and take their opportunities when they come.

Utility stocks have continued to rally, propelling a record 20 of our Portfolio holdings above our value-based buy targets--a high-quality problem. We also highlight the solid fourth-quarter results posted by a handful of our aggressive picks.

Although interest rates and federal policies can affect the stock market and create challenges and opportunities, how companies have positioned themselves and how management teams react to changes ultimately shape investors’ returns.

At the start of the new year, we roll out our top picks and pans among the various segments represented in our Utility Report Card. Last year’s picks generated an average total return of 22.9 percent, while our pans posted a 2.1 percent gain. We hope to build on this success in 2017.

Two of our three model Portfolios outperformed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Utility Average handily last year, while our aggressive picks lagged. We review what went right and what went wrong, with an eye toward refining our process.