Investing Topics: Wholesale Electricity

This week, FirstEnergy Corp (NYSE: FE) announced the first electric utility dividend cut for 2014. Fortunately, it’s likely to be the last as well.

Count me a “distech” skeptic. So-called disruptive technologies never fail to grab headlines. Those who bet on them, however, usually wind up with empty wallets.

Long-term contracts with creditworthy customers, strong finances and scale: Aggressive Holding NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) features all of them. That’s why the unregulated power company continues to thrive, even as rivals flounder.

The Dow Jones Utility Average has lost ground in 17 of the 30 Januarys since 1984. Happily, only 5 of those declines led to a losing year. And in 13 winning Januarys, the average total return was 24.8 percent—the only losing year 1987.

The Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios officially launched on July 31, 2013. Since that time, the Dow Jones Utility Average is off -2.3 percent, including dividends paid.

My Aggressive Income Portfolio is up by 9.3 percent, while the Conservative Income Portfolio has returned 3.3 percent.

Fear of rising interest rates again appears to be triggering selling of utility stocks. I’ve shown over and again that the sector’s so-called interest rate sensitivity is a false relationship over any recent period longer than a few weeks. Consequently, lower prices should be viewed as a buying opportunity for recommended stocks.

These utilities could be due for a dividend cut. 

Part of me wants to say, “It’s about time.”

But Moody’s decision last month to put $400 billion-plus of sector debt on review for upgrade is unabashedly welcome news for utilities.

Taper talk is heating up again as Federal Reserve Chairman-in-waiting Janet Yellen’s fate is debated on Capitol Hill. Rate hike speculation, however, is having much less impact on essential services stocks than it did this past spring. And one big reason is strong third quarter results.

Fourth quarter is usually a good time to hold utility stocks. But it’s only rarely a good time to buy, as prices often reach yearly highs.