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Roger S. Conrad
Roger S. Conrad needs no introduction to individual and professional investors, many of whom have profited from his decades of experience uncovering the best dividend-paying stocks for accumulating sustainable wealth.
Roger built his reputation with Utility Forecaster, a publication he founded more than 20 years ago that The Hulbert Financial Digest routinely ranked as one of the best investment newsletters. He’s also a sought-after expert on master limited partnerships (MLP) and former Canadian royalty trusts.
In April 2013, Roger reunited with his long-time friend and colleague, Elliott Gue, becoming co-editor of Energy & Income Advisor, a semimonthly online newsletter that’s dedicated to uncovering the most profitable opportunities in the energy sector.
Although the masthead may have changed, readers can count on Roger to deliver the same high-quality analysis and rational assessment of the best dividend-paying utilities, MLPs and dividend-paying Canadian energy names.
Articles
Best Renewable Energy Stocks to Bet on an Emerging Recovery
By
Roger S. Conrad on
May. 9, 2024
For the first time ever, solar energy accounted for “more than half” of US electricity generation additions in 2023: That’s from a report released this week by Wood MacKenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association.
Total installed capacity was also a record at 32.4 gigawatts. That was up 51 percent from 2022 levels and 37 percent above 2021, the previous record year for solar installation. And utility-scale dominated at 69 percent of the total.
CMS Energy: Executing Growth at a Good Price
By
Roger S. Conrad on
May. 9, 2024
Utility strong is what you get with Conservative Holding CMS Energy (NYSE: CMS). The stock’s 10-year compound annual return is a solid 10.5 percent. And it’s 15.4 percent for the last 21 years—which began with a management switch and refocus on boosting efficiency, cutting debt and staying on the same page with Michigan regulators.
That’s been the formula for success ever since. In early February, CMS released 2023 results that topped the company’s recently raised targets. Management boosted the mid-point of the 2024 earnings guidance range to $3.32 per share, affirming expected annual growth of 6 to 8 percent through 2028 “with continued confidence toward the high end of the range. The company also raised dividends by 5.7 percent, the same rate of growth as in 2023 and an increase of 90.7 percent from ten years ago.
Between AI and M&A Utilities will Get Their Due
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Apr. 3, 2024
The Dow Jones Utility Average closed out Q1 barely in the black and lagging the S&P 500 by about 9.3 percentage points. The average total return for CUI portfolio stocks was a bit better at 5.8 percent. But the bottom line is this is still a stock market chasing momentum and growth stories, rather than value and dividends.
The essential services stocks that have shone the most so far in 2024 have been tightly connected to popular investment themes like nuclear power, such as our top performer Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST), or else beneficiaries of M&A. MDU Resources’ (NYSE: MDU) pending spinoff of Everus Construction Group in late 2024, for example, is exciting investors as much as last year’s of materials company Knife River (NYSE: KNF) did not—mainly because KNF has roughly doubled in value since.
EverSource Energy: Blown By Offshore Wind But Still on Course
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Apr. 3, 2024
Earlier this year, what promised to be an Atlantic Coast offshore wind boom seemed to go bust. Lead developer Orsted A/S (Denmark: ORSTED, OTC: DNNGY) ousted upper management and wrote off $6 billion in shelved US projects, citing development cost spikes and uneconomic contracts. And its 50 percent partner EverSource Energy’s (NYSE: ES) felt its pain, taking a $5.58 per share impairment charge against Q4 earnings.
EverSource’s plan all along has been to sell its ownership of the offshore projects to focus on linking transmission infrastructure. The writedown reflected the diminished value of those assets. But it now appears the demise of US offshore wind was indeed greatly exaggerated.
When Performance is Jagged Balance is Best
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Apr. 3, 2024
To pivot or not to pivot—That’s the question the Federal Reserve continues to ponder in spring of 2024. Every stray data point on inflation seems to heighten the sense of inertia. And with benchmark interest rates indeed staying higher for longer, investors’ fear of debt and general disinterest in dividends persists.
But there are signs sentiment is at last starting to shift. Changing allocations and a highly volatile quarterly payout makes the iShares Select Dividend ETF (NYSE: DVY) a poor proxy or substitute for a well-chosen portfolio of dividend stocks. But the ETF does follow the Dow Jones Select Dividend Index of 99 high yielding stocks and has definitively resumed the uptrend it began in late October.
Debt’s Still a Threat But Waning
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Apr. 3, 2024
In this month’s Utility Report Card, I highlight how companies stack up on each of our Quality Grade criteria. One big takeaway on balance sheet risk: Higher for longer interest rates are a much-diminished risk to dividends.
Companies are still paying more to refinance debt. But long-term borrowing costs are actually lower than where they began 2023 for most companies. And the result is the wave of debt offerings highlighted in URC comments, particularly of 10 years maturity and greater.
Day of the Data Center: Powering Utility Profits
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Apr. 3, 2024
Electricity and fiber broadband: They’re critical elements for the exploding number of “hyper-scale” US data centers, which in turn are vital for the proliferation of artificial intelligence applications.
At the nexus of both power and fiber are two sectors that to date have been largely ignored by many investors: Electricity and Communications utilities.
Eye on the Bottom Line: Our Companies Have Never Been Stronger
By
Roger S. Conrad on
Mar. 11, 2024
So far in 2024, the Dow Jones Utility Average lags the S&P 500 by nearly 10 percentage points. But over the past month, buying interest has picked up for at least a handful of CUI portfolio companies. Leading the way are nuclear powered Constellation Energy (NYSE: CEG) and Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST), with year-to-date gains of 46 and 57 percent respectively. But even underperforming Avangrid Inc (NYSE: AGR) now has a double-digit 2024 return, as parent Iberdrola SA (Spain: IBE, OTC: IBDRY) has made a non-binding all-cash takeover offer that’s likely to go higher. I continue to believe utilities as a sector won’t really capture upside momentum until there’s a genuine Federal Reserve pivot to lower interest rates. And with the central bank reactive as ever to the latest data point, investors have no choice but to be patient.
MODEL PORTFOLIOS & RATINGS
Aggressive Income Portfolio
Roger's favorite utilities for investors seeking superior price appreciation by taking calculated risks.
Conservative Income Portfolio
Harness the tried and true wealth-building power of rising dividends.
Top 10 DRIPs
Nothing compounds wealth like reinvesting a rising stream of dividends.
Endangered Dividends List
Warning: Falling Dividends.
Utility Report Card
Roger's current take and vital statistics on more than 200 essential-services stocks.
Conrad's Utility Investor
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