Roger S. Conrad

By any measure, 2013 was a great year to own stocks. It was also an exceptionally bad time to bet against the United States of America. And that remains the case as we open the page on 2014.

Will Santa Claus visit utility stock investors this year? The sector was out of the gate quickly to start the fourth quarter of 2013. But concerns about the “tapering” off of Federal Reserve bond buying quickly slowed things down.

Ready to lock up money for 54 years at just 3.4 percent annual interest? More than a few investors did this week when their funds bought Enterprise Products Partners’ (NYSE: EPD) 7.034 percent bonds maturing January 15, 2068, a barely investment grade BBB- credit.

Will the Federal Reserve really “taper” off its easy money policy? The stock market has already reacted, with dividend-paying stocks leading the selling: The Dow Jones Utility Average is now flat for the fourth quarter, after being up better than 5 percent through mid-November.

Fear of rising interest rates again appears to be triggering selling of utility stocks. I’ve shown over and again that the sector’s so-called interest rate sensitivity is a false relationship over any recent period longer than a few weeks. Consequently, lower prices should be viewed as a buying opportunity for recommended stocks.

Our favorite Canadian midstream companies–names that own pipelines and processing capacity–generate the majority of their cash flow from fee-based services, a business model that provides a degree of protection against volatile oil and gas prices.

These utilities could be due for a dividend cut. 

Part of me wants to say, “It’s about time.”

But Moody’s decision last month to put $400 billion-plus of sector debt on review for upgrade is unabashedly welcome news for utilities.

Healthy growing businesses produce rising dividends, which in turn push share prices higher: That’s the utility investor’s road to superior and safe long-term returns. And if operating results of our Portfolio companies are any indication, it’s still wide open.

Since World War II, no regulated utility has ever failed to make its bondholders whole from disaster. That gives utility bonds a level of safety no other sector can match, particularly after 11 years of systematically cutting debt and operating risk.

Utility bonds’ years of being under-rated may be coming to an end, now that Moody’s is considering a sector-wide upgrade. But for now, they’re under-priced and therefore yield more than debt of equivalent real risk.