Roger S. Conrad

Nothing destroys shareholder value like a dividend cut. Investors should steer clear of these names.

Where January leads, the rest of the year follows: That Wall Street adage has generally held up for most stocks over the years.

But it definitely has not for utilities—they’ve received a false signal 10 times in the past 30 years.

The keys to 2014 are ensuring the health and growth of the stocks you own, and buying selected bargains. These appear when investors let emotions get the better of them, or follow strategies based on false premises.

The most deadly conventional wisdom last year is still very much in play now: Selling utilities and other dividend-paying stocks for fear of rising interest rates.

As it turned out, rates did rise a lot in 2013, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield soaring more than 70 percent. But the Dow Jones Utility Average, Alerian MLP Index and S&P Telecom Service Index all finished 2013 with double-digit total returns.

That’s exactly what they did in 2009, the last time the 10-year Treasury note yield rose by better than 70 percent. In fact, the trio’s worst year by far since 1984 was 2008, a year of sharply falling interest rates.

Long-term contracts with creditworthy customers, strong finances and scale: Aggressive Holding NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) features all of them. That’s why the unregulated power company continues to thrive, even as rivals flounder.

Oklahoma Natural Gas Company has provided regulated gas distribution service to Tulsa, Oklahoma since 1906. Today, successor company ONEOK (NYSE: OKE) serves 2.1 million customers as the largest gas utility in Kansas and Oklahoma, and third biggest in Texas.

Seek stocks of healthy and growing companies whose prospects exceed investor expectations. Then build a diversified and balanced mix you can hold long-term, to enjoy the rising cash flow and share price appreciation that growing dividends provide over time.

The Dow Jones Utility Average has lost ground in 17 of the 30 Januarys since 1984. Happily, only 5 of those declines led to a losing year. And in 13 winning Januarys, the average total return was 24.8 percent—the only losing year 1987.

The Conrad’s Utility Investor Portfolios officially launched on July 31, 2013. Since that time, the Dow Jones Utility Average is off -2.3 percent, including dividends paid.

My Aggressive Income Portfolio is up by 9.3 percent, while the Conservative Income Portfolio has returned 3.3 percent.

Investors should disregard any articles about Kinder Morgan Energy Partners’ tanker acquisition that confuse the global VLCC market with US-flagged vessels that comply with the Jones Act.

US electric utilities have enthusiastically embraced renewable energy the past few years. That includes companies that have traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

By any measure, 2013 was a great year to own stocks. It was also an exceptionally bad time to bet against the United States of America. And that remains the case as we open the page on 2014.