Roger S. Conrad

Last month, I highlighted five key drivers of the Dow Jones Utility Average’s early 2022 rally past the long-elusive 1,000 mark. Unfortunately, over the past month of so two major negatives have put a lid on upside. One is inflation pressure that’s up-ended the broad stock market, while accelerating the bond market’s decline.

Even before the Commerce Department launched its probe of imports from Southeast Asia, the cost of solar panel costs was as much as 50 percent higher in the US than Europe and Australia. And Solar Energy Industries Association members have cut 2022-23 installation forecasts by 46 percent, on the prospect of new retroactive tariffs as high as 250 percent.

Centerpoint Energy (NYSE: CNP) has been a big winner since we entered its convertible preferred stock in mid-2020, following a 48 percent cut in the common dividend. Now with shares trading at a premium valuation of 22 times expected next 12 months earnings, it’s fair to ask how much more upside we can realistically expect.

The yield for 10-year Treasury bonds is now over 3.1 percent, more than double where it began 2022. And the US Federal Reserve has decisively moved to tighten monetary policy with a 50 basis point increase to its key Fed Funds rate. Yet the Dow Jones Utility Average is still very much in the black year to date.

Dow Jones Utility Average returns are now more than 17 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 year to date. And 21 CUI Portfolio members trade above my highest recommended entry points. But that also means, despite recent stock market turbulence, they’re still high-priced enough for readers to consider cashing out a portion of their positions.

The Federal Reserve is getting serious about reining in inflation. And the kind of big money that never rests for long has apparently decided US utility stocks are an ideal haven.

The happy result: After lagging the past couple years, the Dow Jones Utility Average has pushed out to a 10 percent year-to-date return. That’s even as the S&P 500 has retreated -5.5 percent and the Nasdaq 100 is down -12 percent. 

In the December 2021 feature article, I noted the S&P Telecoms Index traded at a bear market valuation 9.4 times earnings, excluding a handful of technology names like Alphabet Inc (NSDQ: GOOGL). If anything, investors’ gloomy consensus on the sector has thickened since, with every communications company but one in our coverage universe losing more ground.