Roger S. Conrad

Stocks’ recovery since late March looks a lot more like a “V” than it did a month ago. And after breaking through resistance this month, the S&P 500 is now just 6.3 percent from making a new all-time high.

Utility stocks have also perked up lately. As a group, they’ve lagged since mid-April. Nonetheless, we’ve seen some spectacular recoveries among Portfolio holdings.

May set records for S&P 500 dividend cuts, with 18 companies suspending and 5 others reducing. They were joined by 3 non-US essential services providers from our Utility Report Card coverage universe.

AusNet Services (ASX: AST, OTC: SAUNF) raised its semi-annual dividend for payment in June by 4.9 percent. But the Australian electricity distribution utility also issued guidance for a payout cut of -7 to -12 percent for the next 12 months.

Last August, I harvested a basket of high yielding stocks from what I called “stony ground.” My point was falling interest rates had become a double-edged sword for income investors. On the one hand, returns for dividend paying stocks and fixed income securities were rising. And companies’ generation-low borrowing costs were firing up earnings as well.

Communications sector leaders are playing a long game just now, sacrificing revenue gains from surging communications traffic, while absorbing the costs of building leading positions for critical applications to serve the exploding digital economy.

In March 2008, Southern Company (NYSE: SO) became the eighth US electric company within a year to announce construction of new nuclear reactors. A dozen years later, Southern’s pair of 1.1 gigawatt capacity reactors at the Vogtle site in Georgia are the only AP1000s under construction in America. 

Total SA's (Paris: FP, NYSE: TOT) first-quarter results are a warning to those who would bet against the future of super majors. The environment is changing, but the business model is alive and well.

It’s no surprise that both the US and China’s political rhetoric is ratcheting up as the US approaches November elections. COVID-19 recriminations are just the latest catalyst for worsening what were already tense relations. Nonetheless, I’m staying with three Chinese essential service stocks.

Final certification isn’t until May 22. But preliminary voting results show a strong majority in favor of PG&E Corp’s (NYSE: PCG) restructuring plan, allowing the California utility to exit the bankruptcy it entered in January 2019.

About nine of every ten Utility Report Card coverage universe companies have now reported Q1 earnings and updated guidance. Takeaway number one: Even among essential services providers, COVID-19 fallout varies greatly.

Every earnings season my first priority for analysis is the Portfolio. Despite the unprecedented uncertainty, I’m happy to report the vast majority of recommended companies were able to issue meaningful guidance. And not only that, the updated forecasts are by and large in line with their expectations three months ago.

That’s truly extraordinary, considering the global economy has suffered its most dramatic setback since the Great Depression of the 1930s. There’s no guarantee even the best in class of essential services won’t ultimately succumb, if the big picture gets cloudy enough.

Communications traffic is surging while the global economy shrinks. By and large, sector companies didn’t convert that to higher profits or even revenues in Q1. But the emerging trend is faster adoption of 5G, with a resulting earnings liftoff for industry leaders the next few years.