Roger S. Conrad

A record 67 of the 202 companies covered in our Utility Report Card rate a Sell. In some instances, these ratings reflect historically elevated valuations that give investors an opportunity to take profits before the inevitable reversion to the mean. Other Sell calls seek to help investors avoid genuinely weak companies at risk of a major blow-up. Fourteen of these stragglers appear on our Endangered Dividends List. Although many popular, large-capitalization utility stocks trade within a few percentage points of new all-time highs, the list of potential downside catalysts continues to grow. Utilities operating in Florida and on the Gulf Coast, for example, must deal with the aftermath of two of the most destructive hurricanes on record, increasing the risk that their response could fall short of customers and regulators’ expectations. (See Utilities and Hurricanes: Responding to Harvey and Irma.) Concerns about rising interest rates could also provide an excuse to take profits, while the Trump administration has sought to intervene in highly competitive wholesale-electricity markets. Since the September issue of Conrad’s Utility Investor hit the web, Utilities Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLU) has lagged the S&P 500 by 6.5 percentage points—a degree of underperformance that could portend further weakness for the sector. On the other hand, the market can remain irrational much longer than investors expect. Moreover, all signs point to a strong earnings season for many of the companies in our Utility Report Card. And buying opportunities still exist at this stage in the cycle. Company-specific developments have prompted us to raise our buy targets on several Portfolio holdings, including this month’s aggressive spotlight. The feature article also identifies which names would benefit from the Trump administration’s proposed intervention in wholesale power markets.

The Trump administration has pushed several policies that could shake up domestic electricity markets. Of these initiatives, the Dept of Energy’s proposed subsidies for merchant coal-fired power plants and nuclear reactors would radically change the existing market dynamics. We evaluate the investment risks and opportunities created by these shifts.

Company-specific developments warrant higher buy targets for a trio of our Portfolio holdings.

A blockbuster acquisition could put this European water and environmental services company on the path to dividend growth.

This large-cap utility offers exposure to multiple upside drivers and trades at a reasonable valuation.

Although third-quarter earnings season hasn't hit yet, recent developments have landed four companies on the Endangered Dividends List. The latest additions include two former members that had escaped after slashing their payouts.

How utilities respond to storm-related outages can have important implications for regulatory relations.

Massive distribution cuts from the likes of Plains All-American Pipeline LP have severely damaged midstream master limited partnerships' (MLP) reputation among income investors. But our favorite MLPs trade at favorable valuations and offer exposure to compelling volumetric growth stories.

September is often the cruelest month for the stock market, including utilities. This year, however, nothing has broken the sector’s upward momentum, including devastating hurricanes, uncertainty surrounding tax reform, and a pending trade case that could slow the adoption of solar power in the US. We’re not complaining; our Portfolio holdings continue to benefit from this momentum. But the higher bar of expectations that comes with these lofty valuations increases the potential for disappointment. This month’s update to the Utility Report Card uses our proprietary Conrad’s Utility Investor Value Index to compare current valuations to previous peaks in the run-up to the 2000-01 and 2008-09 meltdowns. The biggest takeaway from this exercise is that many utility stocks trade at valuations that exceed these highs. Some of this disconnect between fundamentals and valuations likely stems from the growing popularity of passive investment strategies, a phenomenon we explore at length in the feature article. Nevertheless, we continue to find value in our coverage universe.

Macroeconomic developments and moves in the broader market matter when you buy and hold individual stocks. But if you have chosen well, paid a reasonable price, and can keep your emotions in check, even a 2008-style collapse will only delay, not derail, your wealth-building efforts.