Feature Article

Five Endangered Dividends List companies cut dividends last month. For Covanta Holding (NYSE: CVA), NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS/A), the decision was all about COVID-19 fallout.

The Dow Jones Utility Average is nearly 30 percent higher than where it closed March 23. But since mid-April, utilities and essential services stocks have essentially run in place. In fact, most have given back a fair portion of their recovery, as increasingly excited investors have gravitated to traditional “growth” sectors.

Falling oil prices and economic weakness have historically been bad news for wind and solar power. But this time around, they’re shaping up bullish for global electricity producer Enel SpA (Italy: ENEL, OTC: ENLAY).

It’s one thing to grow when your industry is booming. It’s another entirely when almost every company is crawling into its shell, if management still has one—but that’s exactly what TC Energy (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) is doing with sub-$5 oil prices in some regions it serves.

Since the March issue, I’ve sent Conrad’s Utility Investors readers three action Alerts. Throw in the three Income Insights and two Utility Roundups and that’s quite a bit of extra homework.

What a difference a month makes. In March, I noted most of the nearly 200 companies we track posted solid 2019 results, holding out the possibility economic fallout from COVID-19 would create casualties.

Take your pick of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Utility Average, or any other sector index and the chart tells the same tale: Stocks’ rebound from late March lows has reached a level that in all previous bear markets has signaled rally’s end.

Wall Street thrives and relies on numbers. Anything that’s measurable and helps forecast investment value is eventually used in formulas and algorithms.

COVID-19’s global spread, however, has confronted stock market analysts with a unique challenge. The virus’ unique characteristics—especially the 14-day incubation period—have made it problematic for medical professionals to accurately forecast and adequately prepare for.

Calendar Q4 earnings results are almost all in for the nearly 200 essential services companies in our Utility Report Card coverage universe.

Takeaway one: Except for the handful of weaklings headed for bankruptcy like Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), most are thriving and dividends are safe.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) expects its revenue growth to accelerate to “mid single digits” in 2020 from last year’s 0.8 percent. That’s based on three drivers.

First is continuing Q4’s favorable trends in wireless and broadband customer additions. The second is accelerating growth in business revenue, as advanced services adoption speeds up with 5-G. And the third is stabilized media services sales, following recent streamlining.