Roger S. Conrad

Despite the indiscriminate selling of the past few days, these two companies are well-positioned to weather this latest phase of the midstream stress test. Here's why.

From shuttered schools and cancelled events to disrupted supply chains, it looks like COVID-19—the coronavirus—is only starting to wreak havoc on the global economy. The big questions for investors: Where will the blows hit hardest and what if anything will be spared.

The market’s wild recent action is basically from bets being placed on the answers. So far, US Treasury bonds are in the winners’ circle. The yield on 10-year notes slipped to just 66 basis points at one time last week.

Wall Street thrives and relies on numbers. Anything that’s measurable and helps forecast investment value is eventually used in formulas and algorithms.

COVID-19’s global spread, however, has confronted stock market analysts with a unique challenge. The virus’ unique characteristics—especially the 14-day incubation period—have made it problematic for medical professionals to accurately forecast and adequately prepare for.

Calendar Q4 earnings results are almost all in for the nearly 200 essential services companies in our Utility Report Card coverage universe.

Takeaway one: Except for the handful of weaklings headed for bankruptcy like Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), most are thriving and dividends are safe.

Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) expects its revenue growth to accelerate to “mid single digits” in 2020 from last year’s 0.8 percent. That’s based on three drivers.

First is continuing Q4’s favorable trends in wireless and broadband customer additions. The second is accelerating growth in business revenue, as advanced services adoption speeds up with 5-G. And the third is stabilized media services sales, following recent streamlining.

It’s been a difficult couple of years for AGL Energy (ASX: AGL, OTC: AGLXY), Australia’s largest power producer and electricity retailer.

First came the National/Liberal Party federal government’s aggressive reaction to rising prices for natural gas and electricity—a trend AGL had correctly bet on that resulted from a dramatic increase in the country’s LNG exports.

A sharp run up to new all-time highs, followed by a steep one-week plunge that’s leveled off for now between the high and low: That’s where the Dow Jones Utility Average has travelled since the February issue posted.

Economic uncertainty resulting from COVID-19 has shifted utilities’ momentum from positive to negative. And it’s clear we know little now about the ultimate damage to human health and economic growth. But big and sudden declines like this one have historically been followed by mighty rebounds, and huge rewards for those who’ve had the cash and fortitude to buy the right stocks at the bottom. 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) isn’t finished inflicting pain and suffering, particularly on China, and the global economic cost is only beginning to be felt. But one Chinese industry seems to still be moving full-steam ahead.